
Strategies for Drawdown Reduction in Long-Only Equity Portfolios
– Authored by Vineet Sachdeva, Entrepreneur Partner-Quantitative Equity Investing, Alpha Alternatives
Monday May 2024
In today’s volatile market environment, where economic uncertainties and rapid shifts in investor sentiment have become the norm, protecting portfolio downside is more critical than ever. Long- only equity portfolios face the challenge of preserving capital during drawdowns without sacrificing growth potential of equities. The following are five popular market strategies that investors use to reduce drawdowns.
- Dynamic Asset Allocation: In a dynamic allocation approach, the portfolio’s exposure is adjusted based on market volatility and risk signals. This might involve shifting a portion into cash or low-beta stocks when high-risk signals emerge, reducing equity exposure to control volatility. It provides a systematic way to manage market risk and allows you to preserve capital during volatile periods. The flip side of this approach is that investors may miss out on sudden market recoveries if re-entry is delayed. This approach requires reliable risk signals to avoid frequent whipsaws. Also, implementing it can increase complexity and costs due to frequent adjustments.
- Tail Risk Hedging: It typically involves using derivatives to protect the portfolio during extreme moves with minimal cost. These strategies, also known as Black Swan strategies, tend to do very well in extreme market moves and therefore provide significant protection. Tail hedging strategies also do not take away from portfolio returns in case of an immediate
bounce-back from lows. However, hedging strategies can be costly, reducing overall returns in low-return environments. Also, implementing an effective hedge in a long-only portfolio may require complex derivatives which may be outside the realm of most investors. These can also be very frustrating in flat or whipsawing markets, as one incurs cost without seeing
much commensurate benefits. - Market Timing Signals: Adding systematic timing elements—such as moving averages, trend-following indicators, or sentiment indicators—can help reduce exposure during prolonged downturns. For instance, exiting the market when prices fall below a moving average can avoid further declines. These strategies are very effective in reducing drawdowns during extended bear markets. They can be implemented systematically to
continuously reduce exposure during the process of peaking markets. However, it is important to have robust signals as false signals in choppy markets may increase turnover and costs. It also requires sophisticated analysis to implement effectively. - Cash Buffer: Holding a portion of the portfolio in cash or cash equivalents, especially when risk signals indicate heightened market risk, can reduce drawdowns. A cash buffer also provides liquidity to buy into the market at lower prices. This strategy therefore reduces portfolio volatility. Cash holdings reduce potential returns, especially during extended bull
markets. Also, determining the timing and size of cash allocations can be challenging. -
Creating a Portfolio of High-Quality Companies: High-quality companies generally have strong balance sheets, low debt levels, and high cash reserves, which make them better equipped to handle economic downturns. This reduces the risk of severe price drops due to financial distress. They operate in sectors with stable demand, such as consumer staples or healthcare, which can provide steady returns even when the broader market is under pressure. During periods of market stress, investors often flock to quality companies as & “safe havens” This is not a short-term strategy as these companies may not provide the samegrowth potential as smaller or more aggressive growth stocks. Quality stocks may not participate in sharp market recoveries compared to higher-beta or cyclical stocks. Quality stocks also tend to trade at premium valuations.
Conclusion:
Investors should stay invested in high quality companies to reduce drawdowns and can implement this using a Multi Factor Model (a model that uses multiple combinations of factors to select a stock. For example, a stock can be shortlisted by size, followed by quality and value, and then overlaid with momentum). The Value factor overlaid on quality companies can help in picking quality stocks at a reasonable discount. The Momentum factor, which can be taken as proxy for
growth can help in picking stocks that currently have higher visibility in the market. This approach ensures that we can harness the potential of value and growth within the framework of high-quality investing.
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